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The IDR Scoreboard

Who's winning the No Surprises Act arbitrations, quarter by quarter.

Merits Research · every figure linked to its source · last verified July 2026

There is a second appeals system in American health care, and almost no clinician who fights denials will ever touch it. It is not for denied claims. It is for a narrower fight: what an out-of-network provider gets paid when a patient could not choose in-network — the emergency room, the anesthesiologist a patient never met, the air ambulance. The Federal Independent Dispute Resolution (IDR) process, created by the No Surprises Act, is the referee for that payment fight. And on the public record, one side is winning almost every round.

The scoreboard

Latest CMS release: 2025 Q1–Q2 PUF, generated 08/07/2025 · updated July 2026

88%1

of payment determinations decided for the initiating party (providers) in the first half of 2025

1.2M1

disputes initiated in the first half of 2025 alone — the volume the process was never built for

610,4982

disputes initiated in H1 2024, the last period CMS has fully documented in a supplemental report

Read the scoreboard with care: the numbers come from different CMS releases covering different periods, and the win share counts the initiating party, not literally “providers.” Those distinctions decide what the figure means — the methodology note below spells them out. But the shape does not move. Across every reporting period CMS has published, the party that brings the dispute wins the large majority of the time, and the volume keeps outrunning every projection made when the law passed.

This is not a denial appeal

The distinction is the whole reason this scoreboard sits apart from the rest of this publication. A denial appeal contests whether a service is covered — medical necessity, prior authorization, coding. IDR never asks that question. By the time a case reaches IDR, everyone agrees the service happened and is owed something; the only open question is the dollar amount of the out-of-network rate. CMS puts it plainly: the process lets out-of-network providers and plans “determine the OON rate for qualified IDR items or services after an unsuccessful open negotiation period.”3

It is also structurally different. IDR is baseball-style arbitration: each side submits one final offer, and a certified IDR entity picks one — not a number in between. The winner is simply whichever party’s offer the arbiter selects, which is what CMS records as the prevailing party.3 And it only applies to the surprise-billing scenarios the No Surprises Act defines: emergency care, and non-emergency care delivered by out-of-network clinicians at in-network facilities, plus air ambulance transport. For how the process starts and who qualifies, see our explainers on the No Surprises Act IDR process and the underlying surprise medical bill protections. If your denial is a coverage or medical-necessity denial, IDR is not your road.

A process built for thousands, buried under millions

When the No Surprises Act was written, the federal government expected the arbitration channel to be a relief valve used rarely — on the order of 17,000 disputes a year.4The actual traffic has been in a different universe. CMS’s own supplemental report documents 610,498 disputes initiated in the first six months of 2024 — 56% more than the 390,346 in the last six months of 2023.2 The 2025 PUF then recorded roughly 1.2 million disputes in the first half of 2025, more than double the same window a year earlier.1 The referee has been buried: certified IDR entities closed 460,774 disputes in H1 2024 but still left a growing queue of cases awaiting a determination.2

The traffic is not evenly spread. A small number of large practice-management and revenue-cycle firms drive most of it: in the first half of 2024, the top ten initiating parties accounted for roughly 69% of all disputes, and the top three alone — Radiology Partners, SCP Health, and Team Health — for about 44%.2 This is a channel worked hard by a few sophisticated repeat players, not a tool the average small practice reaches for.

Where the disputes come from

The fight concentrates in a handful of service lines — the ones where out-of-network billing at in-network facilities is structurally unavoidable. In CMS’s H1 2024 report, two categories carried roughly two-thirds of every payment determination:

Share of IDR payment determinations, by service category
Emergency department services48%
Radiology services16%
All other services36%

CMS Supplemental Background on the Federal IDR PUF, January 1 – June 30, 2024 (source 2). Emergency and radiology together accounted for ~64% of the 348,607 payment determinations rendered in that period.

And when the arbiter picks a winner, the winning number tends to sit well above the plan’s benchmark. CMS reports that the prevailing offer was higher than the qualifying payment amount (QPA)— the plan’s median contracted rate, the figure the law nudges offers toward — in roughly 85% of payment determinations in the first half of 2024.2 CMS cautions that low-dollar services show the largest percentages because a small absolute gap becomes a large percentage gap, so the specialty-level ratios in its supplemental tables should be read as directional, not as a uniform multiplier.2

What “the initiating party wins” actually means

The headline win share deserves an asterisk that CMS itself supplies. The 84% figure for H1 2024 is not one clean contest. CMS separates it: providers won a 86% share of determinations where both parties submitted an offer and paid their fees, but a larger 75% share of default decisions — cases the arbiter had to award to the only party that submitted an offer and paid, because the other side did not.2 Default wins are real dollars, but they are a different event from a contested decision on the merits of the offers.

Providers, facilities, or air ambulance providers were the prevailing party in approximately 84% of payment determinations made in the first six months of 2024.2

CMS — Supplemental Background on the Federal IDR PUF, Jan 1 – Jun 30, 2024

One more caveat rides underneath all of it: eligibility. Before any offer is weighed, a certified IDR entity must confirm the dispute even belongs in IDR — and a large share do not survive that gate. Non-initiating parties (the plans) challenged the eligibility of 45% of disputes initiated in H1 2024, and 18% of disputes closed in that period were determined ineligible.2 The win share is measured on the disputes that clear eligibility and reach a payment determination — not on everything filed.

The scorekeeping has a cost, too

Running the arbitration is not free to the parties. Every disputing party pays a non-refundable administrative feeto CMS on top of the certified IDR entity’s own fee. For disputes initiated on or after January 22, 2024, that administrative fee was $115 per party per dispute; CMS’s Federal IDR Operations final rule then cut it to $15 per party per dispute for disputes initiated on or after June 11, 2026.5 On a channel processing hundreds of thousands of cases a quarter, the entry fee is its own line of the ledger — one we will track as the lower fee takes effect in the next release.

Changelog
  1. UPDATED JULY 2026

    Built on CMS’s 2025 Q1–Q2 PUF (generated 08/07/2025) for headline volume and win share, and the Supplemental Background report for January 1 – June 30, 2024 (generated 03/18/2025) for the service-category split, QPA ratios, and eligibility figures. Next update tracks CMS’s next PUF release and the June 11, 2026 drop in the administrative fee from $115 to $15 per party.

Sources

  1. 1CMS — Federal IDR public use files (2025 Q1–Q2 PUF; H1 2025 headline volume and prevailing-party share), cms.gov/nosurprises reports · PUF generated Aug 7, 2025
  2. 2CMS — Supplemental Background on the Federal IDR Public Use Files, January 1 – June 30, 2024 (610,498 initiated; 348,607 determinations; ~84% prevailing party; emergency 48% / radiology 16%; ~85% above QPA; 45% eligibility challenges; 18% ineligible; top-3/top-10 initiators) · Generated Mar 18, 2025 (H1 2024)
  3. 3CMS — Federal Independent Dispute Resolution Public Use Files: General Information (definitions of disputing party, prevailing party, and OON rate; PUF structure) · accessed Jul 2026
  4. 4Congressional Research Service — NSA Independent Dispute Resolution (IDR) Process Data Analysis for 2024 (R48738), on volume vs. the ~17,000/year federal expectation · 2025
  5. 5CMS — Federal IDR administrative fee: $115 per party per dispute (initiated on/after Jan 22, 2024); $15 per party (initiated on/after Jun 11, 2026) under the Federal IDR Operations final rules · fee schedule, 2023–2026

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